> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://blueprint.builtbydao.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://blueprint.builtbydao.com/why-now.md).

# Why Now — the Market

{% hint style="info" %}
The "why now" is unusually strong because demand and supply pain reinforce each other — and the two forces crushing conventional builders are the exact two costs BBD removes from the cash ledger. **The crisis is the thesis.**
{% endhint %}

## Demand — a historic, worsening shortage

* A **7.2M shortage** of affordable + available rental homes for \~11M extremely low-income renters — **no state or major metro** has adequate supply (NLIHC, *The Gap*).
* Total shortage estimates range widely: \~1.2M units (NAHB) · 3–4M (Goldman Sachs) · **8.2M as of 2023 → potentially 9.6M by 2035, \~$2.7T to close** (McKinsey).
* Shelter inflation \~**3.6%/yr**, outpacing broader prices (NAHB).

## Supply pain = BBD's advantage

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Labor" %}

* \~**349K construction workers** needed in 2026 — over half just to replace retirees.
* \~1 in 5 construction workers is 55+; only \~**7% of job-seekers** consider the trades.
* The shortage costs homebuilding \~**$10.8B/yr** and \~**19K unbuilt homes**; wages up 4%+ (some firms 20%+).

→ **BBD trains its own workforce and pays in EQTBLT.**
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Materials" %}

* Steel **+13%**, aluminum **+23%** YoY; tariffs up to **50%** on steel/aluminum/copper; construction inputs \~**44% above 2020**.
* Chicago construction costs pushing near double-digits, labor-driven (ULI).

→ **BBD salvages 50%+ of materials.**
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Policy tailwind" %}

* Supply-side reform is delivering: Austin's reform package cut rents, with the steepest declines (\~11%) in older, non-luxury buildings.
* Montgomery County-style affordable models are spreading to **Atlanta** and **Chattanooga** — near target geographies.
  {% endtab %}
  {% endtabs %}

## The local evidence — it can't be built conventionally

The cities' own numbers prove the market cannot deliver attainable ownership without subsidy:

|                                              |                                                                                                     |
| -------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Detroit — median home sale (2024)**        | **$87.5K** — vs $304K (new multifamily) to $448K (new single-family) to build (City of Detroit HRD) |
| **Detroit — financing gap, new SF**          | **$348K–$405K** per low-income household — 7–8× the multifamily gap (City of Detroit HRD, 2025)     |
| **Chicago — to deliver one affordable unit** | **\~$679K** (LIHTC, 2025); affordable dev cost rose from \~$400K (2019) to \~$750K (2024)           |
| **National — HUD per-unit average**          | **\~$232K** — and rising (LIHTC TDC up from \~$150K pre-COVID to $200K+)                            |

```mermaid
xychart-beta
    title "Detroit — cost to build vs median sale price (per home, $K)"
    x-axis ["Median sale", "HUD per-unit avg", "New multifamily", "New single-family"]
    y-axis "Dollars per home, thousands" 0 --> 500
    bar [87.5, 232, 304, 448]
```

The City of Detroit's own conclusion: new for-sale affordable housing "is not possible from an appraisal perspective" in most of the city without subsidy that doesn't exist at scale. **That is precisely the gap BBD is built to close — and to capture for the community.**

## Synthesis

Traditional builders are squeezed simultaneously by labor and material inflation; BBD converts both to non-cash through the cost-reduction linchpin, so it can deliver exactly when demand is most acute — and serve committed cohort demand that conventional development can't reach.

{% hint style="success" %}
Ownership is out of reach for a generation; public money for housing is structural and growing; the labor + material inflation crushing conventional builders is what BBD converts to non-cash. **The conditions that make housing unbuildable for others are the conditions BBD is built to exploit.**
{% endhint %}

*Macro figures are directional and refreshed at publication; local figures sourced from City of Detroit HRD (2025), City of Chicago (2025), HUD, and NLIHC.*


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